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Автор
Reuters
Опубликовано
16 дек. 2010 г.
Время чтения
3 минут(-а,-ы)
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Consumption to boost growth despite jobs rut

Автор
Reuters
Опубликовано
16 дек. 2010 г.

Dec 15 - U.S. consumers are spending more freely again, forcing many forecasters to revise up their estimates for economic growth now that a hotly debated tax deal in Washington is expected to further support the expansion.


People shopping at Kohl's

A Reuters poll of over 70 economists suggests U.S. gross domestic product will rise 2.7 percent in 2011 on an annualized basis, up sharply from 2.3 percent in a November poll.

Current conditions also appear to be looking up, even if unemployment remains elevated. Analysts are now looking for growth of around 2.5 percent in the current quarter, up from an earlier estimate of just 2.0 percent and following a 2.5 percent increase in the third quarter.

A spike in retail sales for November reported on Tuesday reinforced that positive view. Sales rose 0.8 percent, and October's results were revised sharply higher, raising hopes for a solid holiday shopping season.

Consumer spending accounts for about two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, and holiday shopping amounts to as much as one-third of yearly sales in some industries.

Spending next year should be bolstered by the new fiscal plan, say economists, since it includes not only a contentious extension of the Bush era tax cuts but also a renewal of emergency jobless benefits and a 2 percentage point reduction in the payroll tax.

Many economists worry about the plan's long-term implications for the deficit, and the Treasury bond market has sold off sharply in the wake of its announcement, pushing borrowing costs higher and threatening an already fragile outlook for housing.

Still, some of that rise, say analysts, is merely a reflection of the stronger underlying trend in the economy. It is also in part a product of the heavy monetary stimulus offered by the Federal Reserve.

"A variety of factors, from the extension of tax cuts to expansionary monetary policy, from stabilization on financial markets to healthy corporate balance sheets, suggests that growth will progressively accelerate during 2011," said Diane Swonk, economist at Mesirow Financial.

"Not enough to reduce unemployment as we wish, but generating some momentum to improve overall economic conditions, that are still too fragile at the present time."

Indeed, significant risks to growth remain. For one thing, incomes have not been rising very rapidly while consumer credit is picking up, raising the specter of short-lived, debt-fueled spending. At the same time, the housing market, seen as critical to consumer confidence, remains in dire straits.

PRICE PRESSURES SUBDUED


The Reuters poll also found that inflation pressures are likely to remain subdued, giving the Fed room to keep its foot on the monetary accelerator for a while longer even if growth prospects appear to brighten.

Economists see inflation excluding food and energy bottoming out near a record low of 0.6 percent in the last three months of this year, then gradually edging higher to end 2012 around 1.6 percent. That would still fall short of the Fed's presumed comfort range of 2 percent or a bit below.

The U.S. central bank has pulled out all the stops in its response to the worst recession in generations, lowering interest rates to effectively zero and embarking on a massive bond-buying program to keep borrowing costs low.

By Pedro Nicolaci da Costa

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